"Here is an embiggened version of the infamous jobs chart prepared by Obama administration economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer back in January 2009 (and now updated again by me with data from the August jobs report)."
The Romney campaign says stimulus doesn’t work. Here are the studies they left out.
"'The negative effect of the administration’s ‘stimulus’ policies has been documented in a number of empirical studies,' write economists Glenn Hubbard, Greg Mankiw, John Taylor and Kevin Hassett in a paper released by the Romney campaign. But the paper only mentions two studies, and one of them, by Amir Sufi and Atif Mian, is about Cash for Clunkers, a tiny subprogram of the stimulus.
A more comprehensive analysis of the studies that have tried to assess the stimulus leads to a very different conclusion. Last summer, I found nine such studies, seven of which found that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) had promoted economic growth and reduced unemployment. A recent issue of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy has six more papers assessing the stimulus, all of which conclude that stimulus works.
In this post, I’ve pulled together my summaries of the original nine papers, and added sections on the six new additions to the literature. The critical issue in these studies concerns the 'fiscal multiplier' — that is, how much bang the government gets for its stimulus buck. For example, if each dollar spent on a particular kind of tax cut results in a $1 increase in GDP, the multiplier for that tax cut is 1. Any multiplier that is greater than zero indicates a program is stimulative, but the higher the multiplier, the more effective stimulus spending is."
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