"The Arctic will retain its power to amaze for a long time. Yet it is now changing beyond the usual regional and annual variations in sea-ice formation, glacier melt and so forth. The Arctic is clearly melting. Its floating ice cap is shrinking and thinning and its glaciers are retreating. By the end of this century, maybe much sooner, there will be frequent Arctic summers with almost no sea...
The Radiative Forcing of Methane
"The real, observed concentration of methane has not increased for the last 7 years, contrary to all IPCC modelling and scenarios. While the first chapter of the [Stern] Review mentions methane more than 20 times and repeatedly emphasizes the possibilities for massive escape of the gas from thawing permafrost or ocean hydrates, it fails to observe this important change in atmospheric forcing, let alone discuss possible explanations.
The Review correctly states that 'the warming effect of carbon dioxide rises approximately logarithmically with its concentration in the atmosphere', but then immediately adds, wrongly, that methane and nitrous oxide concentrations have a linear relationship to radiative forcing. In fact, forcing declines with concentration increments, as shown in Figure 3 for methane using the IPCC formula.
Leaving aside the Review's mistake in describing CO2e levels, all its misstatements of data on emissions, concentrations and forcing follow a consistent pattern. In each case, total change to date-which has been substantial, but harmless-is minimised. By contrast, present and likely future rates of change-which are presented as having dire consequences-are exaggerated. The Review's data distortions are systematically biased towards alarm."
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