"The Arctic will retain its power to amaze for a long time. Yet it is now changing beyond the usual regional and annual variations in sea-ice formation, glacier melt and so forth. The Arctic is clearly melting. Its floating ice cap is shrinking and thinning and its glaciers are retreating. By the end of this century, maybe much sooner, there will be frequent Arctic summers with almost no sea...
"Figure 3. Lead and lag regression coefficients between monthly surface temperature anomalies and Net radiative flux anomalies in observations versus coupled climate models for: (a) global averages, and (b) global ocean averages, 60°N to 60°S.
One of the most obvious conclusions from Figure 3 is that the satellite observations and climate models display markedly different time-dependent behaviors in their temperature versus radiation variations, especially over the oceans (Figure 3(b)) which are of great interest in climate change studies due to their inherently long time scales of variability. Note that the differences in Figure 3 exist not just at zero time lag, which is where feedback estimates from these regression coefficients have previously been made, but for several months when radiative flux leads and lags temperature.
Also, note the change in sign of the radiative imbalances in Figure 3 depending upon whether radiation leads or lags temperature. As we will see, this behavior gives us clues about the relative roles of forcing versus feedback in the data."
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